Sold prices vs asking prices

How we measure

Sold value

The median value of home sales per square metre, published by INE from the tax records of each purchase. It covers 12 months of sales, July 2025 to June 2026, the Q2 2026 release, split into new and existing homes. INE publishes it per municipality and, in the Lisbon and Porto metropolitan areas, the Algarve and municipalities above 100,000 people, per parish. By typology, only for some municipalities and parishes.

Sold value today

INE's value is about ten months old, and prices have risen since. To bring it to today, we multiply it by the change in INE's median bank appraisal (0012248) in the municipality, between the average of INE's 12 months and the average of the three most recent months, up to September 2026. Where the municipality has too few appraisals, we use the median of the municipalities in its district, or the country's. It is an estimate, and INE's published value is always shown beside it. We tested the method on the last four quarters published: predicting INE's value for each municipality and parish a year ahead, it misses by 5.1% (median), against 16.5% by repeating the previous year's value (2,304 cases, existing homes).

Existing and new homes

New homes are a large part of what is for sale (about a quarter in Lisbon and two in five in Porto) and ask much more per square metre. Comparing everything with everything mixes different homes, so we compare the existing homes for sale with the existing ones INE recorded, and new with new. A home counts as new when any of its listings says it is new or under construction, or it was built in the last two years. Without that information it counts only under All. By default the page shows existing homes.

Asking price

The price per square metre in the listings of apartments and houses for sale seen in the last 30 days on the portals we read. Each home counts once, even when listed on several portals. Auctions, timeshares and the 2% most extreme values at each end, per area, are left out. A median is published only with at least 20 homes in a municipality and 10 in a parish, and a parish gap needs 20.

Gap

The difference between today's median asking price and INE's sold value brought to today, for the same homes (existing, new or all, and the same typology), as a share of the sold value, rounded to a whole percent. It is always computed for the area of the sold value, the parish or the municipality, never finer. It is published only when both sides clear the minimums.

Why it is not the bargaining margin

The gap measures the distance between what is asked and what is recorded, and some things still separate it from the discount a buyer gets. Listings and the tax records do not measure area the same way (gross, net). What is for sale is not what sells: pricier homes stay listed longer and weigh more in the asking price. In rural municipalities the listings are often renovated houses while the sales include ruins, which pushes the gap up a lot. The value declared on the deed can be below the real one. And today's value is an estimate. Read the gap as an indicator, above all for comparing areas with each other.

Estimates

Where INE does not publish this typology for a parish, we multiply the parish's all-homes value by the ratio between this typology and all homes in its council, both from INE. Where INE publishes no typology values for a council, we multiply the council's all-homes value by the ratio between this typology and all homes in the councils with similar prices where INE does publish it. We only estimate within the price range of those councils. INE does not split typologies into new and existing homes. For existing homes of a typology, we multiply the typology's value by the ratio between existing homes and all homes in the parish, or the council, from INE. As INE publishes no such values, this adjustment has no test. We tested these methods where INE does publish the value, by hiding it and estimating it. Median error: T0 and T1 5.7% (189 cases), T2 2.3% (242 cases), T3 3.1% (246 cases), T4 or more 6.4% (156 cases). Every estimated value is marked as such. We never estimate a sold value from asking prices, because the gap would then mean nothing.

The map

Zoomed out, the map shows municipalities, then parishes. Zooming in, it switches to 250 m and 100 m squares, only where there are homes. The Asking layer shows the median asking price of homes for sale seen in the last 30 days: for a municipality or parish its median, and for a square that of the listings inside it, with at least 5 or, failing that, those of the squares around it. With fewer it stays grey. Squares count only listings with an exact location or no stated precision, never those the portal marks as approximate. The Sold and Gap layers show the value of the parish or municipality the area lies in. The price scale follows what you are looking at: each colour holds a fifth of the areas on screen.

Rankings

Only municipalities with INE's own sold value, never an estimate, at least 500 homes sold in the 12 months (INE 0014363) and 100 homes for sale today. With fewer sales, a small municipality's gap says more about the kind of home listed than about the market. Sales count all homes, also when the table shows a typology.

Source

INE, Estatísticas de Preços da Habitação ao nível local (local housing price statistics), indicators 0012234 (median value of sales per m², new and existing homes), 0012241 (the same by typology) and 0014363 (number of sales), and INE's bank appraisal survey, indicator 0012248 (median bank appraisal per m², monthly). INE data under the CC BY 4.0 licence. Asking prices: Explorador, from the listings published on the property portals.